Public Methodology

Trust needs receipts.

Plain-language principles for Rival Nation’s proprietary intelligence. Detailed model cards will publish with every production model version.

Rival Index

Sporting performance and momentum remain separate from popularity. Inputs are versioned and changes expose reason codes.

Attention and structured first-party opinion use sample thresholds, freshness and privacy-safe aggregation.

Breakout detection looks for unusual acceleration across independent signals and preserves first-detection receipts.

Probabilities are opinions, not facts. Each version preserves the exact evidence and model inputs available at the time.

Confidence reflects evidence quality, independence, freshness, agreement and official confirmation—not how dramatic a claim sounds.